A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
