A mere eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
